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On Sunday, the Central African Republic will conduct a crucial quadruple election, including the presidential race, parliament, and local positions.

A Crowded Race for the Presidency

A field of seven contenders are competing for the presidency, among them former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were cleared to stand by the high court after being initially barred. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the last two elections, while Dondra briefly served under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The challengers hopes to capitalize on widespread discontent in a country where conflict remains a constant threat. More than half a million people are internally displaced, with a similar number living as exiles in neighbouring countries.

"This is an chance to commend the significant progress of the country," noted a senior UN diplomat, though he added that challenges remain.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is largely predicted to extend his run. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when named prime minister, serving until a insurgent alliance overthrew the government in 2013, triggering a civil war.

After a turbulent transition period, his reputation for neutrality from the main militias fueled his runoff win in 2016.

Election Risks and Logistical Hurdles

There are fears that logistical problems and insecurity could disrupt the vote, especially in rural areas. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is offering protection and organizational aid that the state's crumbling infrastructure is unable to provide.

Further issues include the electoral roll being published only online, a major hurdle in a country with limited internet access. These issues have prompted an electoral boycott and could, according to observers, "disenfranchise large segments of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents fear that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 charter change that scrapped term limits and lengthened mandates—would entail greater influence for foreign actors.

The president has put faith in the private military group Wagner for personal security, and even after its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to integrate its fighters into a successor entity. Meanwhile, Rwanda has pursued a separate strategy, focusing on business interests within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Recent reports have stated the administration removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded facility to accommodate a Rwandan livestock operation. A pro-opposition commentary charged the leadership of being "determined to dispose of the country piece by piece."

Despite a newly signed agreement with armed factions offering a glimmer of stabilization, the election moves forward under a shadow of doubt and external rivalry.