Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.