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Within the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.