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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he said, in remarks that go beyond previous warnings by his superior, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

Naturally for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the most recent general election. He was promoted later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is completely untested.”